Why simulate good decisions?

Despite an immense progress in science and technology and an unimaginable amount of knowledge, we observe that humanity is destroying its own basis of living. We believe part of this problem derives from a lack of easily understandable, comparable and comprehensible information about consequences and interdependencies of decisions, investments and actions.

A simulation provides a time journey that reveals the implications of the choices and actions taken today and planned for tomorrow. It helps to scale impact by bringing more transparency about benefits, risks, and other impacts into the decision making process, e.g., financial investments.

The sim2sustain Project

The participative simulation of sim2sustain engages stakeholders throughout the decision-making process. The sim2sustain computational model links insights – e.g. on human and financial interactions – resulting from the involvement of stakeholders with the cause-effect chains and numeric parameters of the simulation model. For example, the model includes both economic constraints as well as a person’s willingness to pay for a livable neighbourhood. For comparable results, sim2sustain is using and connecting already existing and scientifically proven models wherever available.

sim2sustain takes clients and partners onto a journey into the future. A journey can start with a simple or strategic question, or a choice that affects a large number of actors in complex ways.

sim2sustain for decisions with a future

Our Vision

We aim for a sustainable economy and society where decisions and transformation strategies of societal relevance will be reached through open collaboration, based on facts, stated goals, and declared values. Decisions, interventions, strategies, and investments reflect the ecological and societal urgency we are facing and contribute to the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Progress in sustainability – can’t it be faster?

After the progress of the past decades in so many areas, shouldn’t it be possible to provide enough food and water to all people on earth, and shouldn’t the destruction of our own natural basis of life and all economic activities be history? While very few would oppose the goals of sustainability per se, why is global progress in the sustainability area that slow? What can we do to change this? Admittedly, it is less than trivial to orchestrate the collective behavior of billions of people, especially as long as some people or groups may gain an advantage over others by acting unsustainably.

However, several communities have successfully demonstrated that clear norms with understandable impact let them avoid the pitfalls of personal gain at the expense of the sustained business of all, without requiring the rest of the world to follow them. A good example is the traditional alp farming which has provided a basis for living to the farmers throughout centuries without destroying the fragile alpine pastures.

Why is it so difficult to establish generally accepted norms or rules aimed at sustainability at a larger scale? Are they really as ineffective or prone to side-effects as is often claimed? Or do they possibly just threaten some vested interests of powerful groups as is often claimed, too?

Certainly, it is less clear at this scale how individual behavior affects the common resources. Therefore, wouldn’t clarity on all consequences of individual actions help to provide a better and more acceptable basis for change? Was William White right after all suggesting we first and foremost would need better computer models as a response to the financial crisis of 2007 which he has warned of as early as in 2003?

Simulated action analysis analysis for sustainable impact aims to provide an open source model combining socioeconomic and environmental models into a comprehensive simulation model including a contagion effect. More information on the contagion effect can be found here.

A project and a business

Our mission

We equip decision makers with knowledge about the outcomes of their decisions, empowering them to act to the best long term benefit of the organization, society, and environment by pushing the state of the art in modeling and analytics.

How does the model work

Meta model

• Combines existing structural models for various domains
• Action module formalizes an agenda to be probed
• Impact module aggregates model results onto relevant KPIs

Simulation model

• Calculates the state of a system / country / world in the future from the current state under the influence of actions
• Back test: Would the model have predicted the past? Are results from different component models consistent?

Networks

• Provide the  “glue” between the domain-specific models
• Connect numbers with narratives, answers with reasons

How does the impact creation work

The model includes perspectives of all actors along the value chain and therefore offers and requires client and stakeholder collaboration.

Material for download

• Flyer for the Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) Switzerland
• Poster on simulated action analysis with application in sustainable finance.

Who is behind sim2sustain

Katrin Hauser
Geographer, climatologist and urban planner with 20 years of leading complex change in finance industry, public administration and public private partnerships through system thinking, participation processes and co-creation. She has a broad leadership track record, based upon people empowering and connecting facts and theories from natural, economic and behavioral disciplines. She joined sim2sustain in an early phase and is since then pioneering partner and co-creator.

Contact & Collaboration

Are you interested to contribute or collaborate? You want to know more about the model, consultancy, or the project?
Please contact sim2sustain@scaling4good.com.